A weather disturbance moving into the Gulf of Mexico poses little threat for tropical storm development, but Houston-area residents could see increased rain chances and potential storms starting Friday.
People in the Houston area should prepare for rain over the weekend, as a weak weather system is moving west into the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the system is currently a trough of low pressure along the tail end of a frontal boundary off the southeastern U.S. coast, the National Hurricane Center said on Tuesday evening that it only has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next week. Still, meteorologists warn that Southeast Texas, including the Houston metro area, may experience heavy rain and thunderstorms as early as Friday, even if the storms do not develop into tropical systems.
In a few days, the disturbance is expected to move west-southwest across the open Gulf of Mexico. Currently, conditions are not favorable for a significant storm to form, but the system may gradually organize into a weak low-pressure area. Forecast models do not predict the storm intensifying rapidly; however, by the weekend, the extratropical moisture could cause scattered storms and heavy rain in some areas around Houston.
The chance of rain in the Houston area is expected to rise to approximately 50% on Friday and Saturday. There may be thunderstorms and some flooding, especially in regions prone to flooding or those with poor drainage. Emergency management officials are advising people to pay attention to the weather, especially if they plan to drive or be outside this weekend.
"Tropical moisture can exert significant impact even in the absence of a named storm," they stated. "This is a good reminder to look over your hurricane plan, grab some extra supplies, and stay up to date."
The National Storm Center issued the outlook as part of its regular work to monitor conditions during the Atlantic storm season, which ends on November 30. While there is no expectation for the current system to worsen, it could still impact Greater Houston by increasing rainfall.
Meteorologists in the area recommend closely monitoring weather updates throughout the weekend. There are also instructions for residents to keep ditches clear and check the roads during times of heavy rain.
Although this disturbance is unlikely to become as severe as a tropical storm in Houston, it is still essential for people living along the Gulf Coast to stay alert as hurricane season intensifies.
