A tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche may briefly strengthen before moving into Mexico early next week, boosting rain chances in Houston on Sunday but posing no significant threat to Texas.
Based on the National Hurricane Center, there is a 50% chance that the tropical disturbance that formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche will turn into a tropical depression or storm before moving inland on Monday. Forecasters said Saturday that the disturbance will bring more moisture northward, which will make it more likely to rain in the Houston area on Sunday. However, the system does not pose a threat to Texas in terms of winds or storm surge.
The weekend is off to a sunny start for most of Southeast Texas, and high temperatures will stay warm (around 90 degrees) through Saturday. The tropical low in the southern Gulf, on the other hand, will bring more water into the area. The normal amount of rain that will fall on Sunday will be less than half an inch south of Interstate 10. Less rain will fall farther inland.
Even though broad flooding is not likely, tropical downpours could bring a couple of inches of rain to certain areas, causing streets or parking lots to briefly flood. It looks like these showers are more like normal summer thunderstorms.
As the storm moves inland over Mexico on Monday, the chances of rain will go down. Forecasters say that after that, Houston will have hot, mostly dry weather again, with highs in the mid-90s by midweek.
Even though the warm Gulf seas are helping the disturbance grow, it is still not well organized as it moves west to northwest. If it gets stronger, it will do so quickly before hitting land in eastern Mexico. Houston and the rest of Texas will probably only see higher rainfall, though.
People should keep an eye on their local forecasts, but they can expect normal summer showers instead of extreme tropical effects.
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